What's Up, Doc?--January 2011

 

What's up, Doc? - The Haitian follies

Published:Tuesday | January 25, 2011 | 12:00 AM

Gwynne Dyer, Contributor

A confidential 2006 cable from the United States (US) Embassy in Haiti, subsequently made public by WikiLeaks, said the US viewed the possible return of either of the two exiled Haitian ex-presidents, Jean-Bertrand Aristide or Jean-Claude Duvalier, as "unhelpful". But one of them, former president-for-life 'Baby Doc', is already back in Haiti, probably with Washington's approval.

Baby Doc took over the dictatorship from his dying father, François 'Papa Doc' Duvalier, at the age of 19 in 1971, and ruled with the same brutality and greed as his father until he was driven from power and into exile in 1986. What could have made him think it was a good idea to come back now?

If you believe the headlines, he has made a dreadful mistake. On January 18, only two days after his return, Baby Doc was brought before a court in Port-au-Prince and charged with official corruption, embezzlement of funds, money laundering and assassination. But things are not always what they seem.

US, France complicit?

First, there is the fact that both the US and France, where Duvalier was living in exile, would have been keeping track of him, and must have known of his intention to return. Indeed, they probably put him up to it: he was travelling on a long-expired diplomatic passport, and would never have been allowed to board the plane to Haiti if Washington and Paris had not quietly blessed his trip.

Second, he may never see the inside of a jail. He was set free after the court hearing without even having to post bail, and the chief magistrate has 90 days to decide whether there is enough evidence to bring him to trial. A lot can happen in 90 days.

Third, Baby Doc has some support in Haiti, as witnessed in the crowds chanting support for him outside the court. It's been 25 years since he left power, and most of the 10 million Haitians are under 25. They don't remember the kidnap-pings, torture and murder of opponents of the Duvaliers, father and son, by the regime's militia, the Tonton Macoutes.

So Baby Doc is not just a deluded no-hoper, although he is unlikely ever to be president again. His presence in Haiti will frighten the outgoing president, René Préval, and his chosen successor, Jude Celestin - as it was doubtless intended to do.

Haiti has been in a protracted political crisis since the presidential election last November. The outside powers that have effectively run the country since 2004, the US, Canada and France, didn't want Préval's candidate to win, and they are making sure he doesn't.

Préval was a little too independent-minded for their taste, though nobody would accuse him of being a raving leftist. They must have feared that Celestin would also have a mind of his own, because they made sure he wasn't in the run-off.

Tinkering with system

It was not very subtly done. Celestin came second in the election, and since no candidate had won 50 per cent of the vote, he should have been a candidate in the run-off second round. But then the 'expert verification mission' - six of whose seven 'experts' come from the US, Canada or France - changed the results.

The man now facing front-runner Mirlande Manigat in the run-off, according to those 'experts', is Haiti's best-known pop musician, Michel Martelly, who is as reliably pro-Washington as she is. If that decision stands, Celestin falls. But Préval's government is still resisting that decision, so it was time to frighten him into submission. Enter Baby Doc.

Or at least, that's probably what's happening, though it doesn't make a lot of sense. Why not? Because what happens in Haiti doesn't really matter in the least to the US, Canada or France. So long as Aristide doesn't come back, the game is of no importance to the outside powers.

What is going on in Haiti at the moment is actually just Brownian motion. The outside powers have nothing important at stake, but the music goes on playing so they feel that they have to dance. Foolish and futile, but perfectly normal.